With the start of the league phase of the Champions League approaching, analysis and predictions for the 2025-26 edition have intensified. One of the most trusted sources in sports statistics, Opta, has recently released its projections for the competition, based on 10,000 different simulations.
According to the simulation results, Liverpool are rated as the main favorites to lift the trophy, with a 20.4% chance of winning. The Reds, who enter this season as reigning Premier League champions and after an impressive transfer window, top the list ahead of Arsenal and current European champions PSG.
Top 10 favorites for the 2025-26 season, according to Opta:
- Liverpool – 20.4%
- Arsenal – 16%
- PSG – 12.4%
- Manchester City – 8.4%
- Barcelona – 8.4%
- Chelsea – 6.2%
- Real Madrid – 5.6%
- Inter – 3%
- Newcastle – 2.8%
- Bayern Munich – 2.5%
According to Opta’s algorithm, teams outside this list have minimal chances of winning—less than 2% each—regardless of their history or domestic dominance.
Experts emphasize that while these predictions are based on advanced statistical analysis, football remains an unpredictable sport. Opta itself highlights that this is a probabilistic model rather than a prophecy, taking into account current form, competition history, and other statistical data for each team.
The Champions League group stage will officially kick off next week, with the grand final set to be played in June 2026. With big returns, the presence of football’s biggest names, and the ambition of many clubs to write history, this edition is expected to be one of the most exciting in recent years.
