Opta’s supercomputer does not only predict the favorites to win the Champions League, but also calculates, round by round, the possible path of each team.
The current ranking highlights important nuances regarding teams’ performances so far.
Arsenal remain the most reliable team in the competition, with a 100% chance of reaching the round of 16 and an 84.6% chance of advancing to the quarter-finals. These statistics explain why Opta gives them a 49% chance of reaching the final and over a 30% chance of winning the title.
Bayern Munich follow closely behind, also with a 100% probability of reaching the round of 16 and a 77.7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, although their title-winning chances are lower.
At another level, Liverpool have a 94.5% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 65.6% chance of making the quarter-finals, while Real Madrid stand at 83.9% and 56.7% respectively—high figures, but not dominant. Barcelona sit in the middle zone with around an 80% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 63.3% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, while Manchester City have a 60% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 62% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, reflecting Opta’s confidence in their ability.
Paris Saint-Germain and Tottenham Hotspur are considered second-tier favorites: PSG have a 53.7% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 54.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, while Tottenham stand at 51.3% and 35.3% respectively, placing both clubs on the fine line between progression and elimination.
From Spain, Atlético Madrid have a 48.8% chance of reaching the round of 16 and a 41.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, indicating an almost equal probability of advancing or being eliminated.
After them, the probabilities drop significantly. Inter and Juventus have less than a 6% chance of reaching the round of 16, although Inter retain a 30.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals thanks to potentially favorable matchups. Atalanta have a 13.4% chance of reaching the round of 16 and an 18.4% chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Teams such as Benfica, Ajax and Galatasaray barely reach a 10–32% chance of making the round of 16, while their chances of reaching the quarter-finals fall below 6%. The rest are ranked with minimal or virtually no probability.
The decisive battle for qualification is expected to go down to the final day of the group stage, making every match crucial for mid- and lower-ranked teams.
